Interactive Simulator
FIRE Probability Engine
Model your path to financial independence and early retirement.
FIRE = Financial Independence, Retire Early. Financial independence means your investments can support your spending without a paycheck. A common rule: you need roughly 25× your annual spending invested. This tool estimates the probability of reaching that point.
$0
Chance of reaching FIRE by age 50
Unlikely
At current levels, reaching FIRE by 50 is unlikely. Increasing savings rate or extending the timeline would improve odds significantly.
Median FIRE age
Not reached
FIRE number
$0
Key factors
Savings rate (% of gross)
Low
Real return
Low
Years to FIRE
Uncertain
Chance of reaching FIRE by age 50
Unlikely
At current levels, reaching FIRE by 50 is unlikely. Increasing savings rate or extending the timeline would improve odds significantly.
Median FIRE age
Not reached
FIRE number
$0
Key factors
Savings rate (% of gross)
Low
Real return
Low
Years to FIRE
Uncertain
Savings rate impact on FIRE by target age
How changing your savings rate affects your probability of reaching FIRE by the selected age. Your current rate is highlighted.
You're in a solid range. Each additional 10% of savings rate roughly doubles the impact on FIRE probability.
Detailed breakdown
Current net worth
$100K
Annual savings
$30K/yr
Savings rate (% of gross)
0%
FIRE number
$0
Median portfolio at target age
$0
Withdrawal income (median)
$0/yr
What’s driving this
With a 0% savings rate (of gross income) — $30K/yr saved, $50K/yr spent — your FIRE number is $0 in today's dollars. The median path does not reach the FIRE number within the modeled timeframe. By age 50, <1% of simulated paths reach financial independence. Increasing your savings rate to 30%+ would meaningfully improve these odds.
This simulator is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All values are shown in today’s dollars (inflation-adjusted). Results are based on Monte Carlo simulation with randomized market returns and the assumptions you provide. Actual outcomes depend on real market conditions, tax situations, spending changes, and factors not fully captured here. The 4% withdrawal rate is a widely referenced guideline, not a guarantee of portfolio survival. Consult a financial advisor for personalized planning.