FIRE Probability Engine · Summary
Results generated via Monte Carlo simulation (600 randomized market scenarios). Exact figures may vary slightly on each page load due to the stochastic nature of the model.
Based on $100K current net worth and $30K/yr in savings, targeting financial independence by age 50.
Chance of reaching FIRE by age 50
Unlikely
At current levels, increasing savings rate or extending the timeline would improve odds significantly.
Median FIRE age
Not reached
FIRE number
$0
Median portfolio at target
$0
Withdrawal income
$0/yr
Key factors
Savings rate (% of gross)
Low
Real return
Low
Years to FIRE
Uncertain
Savings rate impact on FIRE by target age
How changing your savings rate affects your probability of reaching FIRE by the selected age. Your current rate is highlighted.
You’re in a solid range. Each additional 10% of savings rate roughly doubles the impact on FIRE probability.
Scenario assumptions
Current age
30
Target FIRE age
50
Current net worth
$100K
Annual income (gross)
$100K
Effective tax rate
25%
Annual savings
$30K (0% of gross)
Annual spending
$50K
Investment return
7% nominal
Withdrawal rate
4%
Inflation rate
2.5%
What’s driving this
With a 0% savings rate (of gross income) — $30K/yr saved, $50K/yr spent — your FIRE number is $0 in today’s dollars. The median path does not reach the FIRE number within the modeled timeframe. By age 50, <1% of simulated paths reach financial independence. Increasing your savings rate to 30%+ would meaningfully improve these odds.
This summary is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All values are in today’s dollars (inflation-adjusted). Results are based on Monte Carlo simulation (600 randomized paths) with the assumptions shown above. Actual outcomes depend on real market conditions, tax situations, spending changes, and factors not fully captured here. Consult a financial advisor for personalized planning.